Asian Range Breakout

Comparing each session's market-hours high and low to the prior Asian (Tokyo) session's high and low, how often does price break above the Asian high only, below the Asian low only, both sides, or neither during the RTH session?

Timeframe

Data range

2008-12-11 → 2026-05-05

Total sessions

4,324

Period

All history

Pattern frequency

Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	31.660%	27.706%	4,324	+3.95 pts
Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	23.982%	27.891%	4,324	-3.91 pts
Asian range	Broke both sides	43.825%	43.871%	4,324	-0.05 pts
Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.532%	0.532%	4,324	+0.00 pts

Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.

Sliced by dimensionexpand a dimension to see grouped probabilities

Day of week5 groupsMonday – Friday

Group	Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
Monday	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	38.603%	31.250%	816	+7.35 pts
Monday	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	24.632%	31.863%	816	-7.23 pts
Monday	Asian range	Broke both sides	35.784%	35.907%	816	-0.12 pts
Monday	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.980%	0.980%	816	+0.00 pts
Tuesday	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	30.313%	26.622%	894	+3.69 pts
Tuesday	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	24.497%	28.076%	894	-3.58 pts
Tuesday	Asian range	Broke both sides	44.966%	45.078%	894	-0.11 pts
Tuesday	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.224%	0.224%	894	+0.00 pts
Wednesday	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	30.743%	25.563%	888	+5.18 pts
Wednesday	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	20.833%	25.901%	888	-5.07 pts
Wednesday	Asian range	Broke both sides	48.086%	48.198%	888	-0.11 pts
Wednesday	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.338%	0.338%	888	+0.00 pts
Thursday	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	30.813%	28.408%	873	+2.41 pts
Thursday	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	24.971%	27.262%	873	-2.29 pts
Thursday	Asian range	Broke both sides	43.872%	43.986%	873	-0.11 pts
Thursday	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.344%	0.344%	873	+0.00 pts
Friday	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	28.253%	26.260%	853	+1.99 pts
Friday	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	25.088%	27.081%	853	-1.99 pts
Friday	Asian range	Broke both sides	45.838%	45.838%	853	+0.00 pts
Friday	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.821%	0.821%	853	+0.00 pts

Session close color2 groupsGreen – Red

Group	Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
Green	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	48.655%	30.630%	2,380	+18.03 pts
Green	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	10.714%	28.739%	2,380	-18.03 pts
Green	Asian range	Broke both sides	40.168%	40.168%	2,380	+0.00 pts
Green	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.462%	0.462%	2,380	+0.00 pts
Red	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	10.854%	24.537%	1,944	-13.68 pts
Red	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	40.226%	26.440%	1,944	+13.79 pts
Red	Asian range	Broke both sides	48.302%	48.405%	1,944	-0.10 pts
Red	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.617%	0.617%	1,944	+0.00 pts

Prior session candle2 groupsGreen – Red

Group	Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
Green	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	29.466%	27.280%	2,379	+2.19 pts
Green	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	25.179%	27.322%	2,379	-2.14 pts
Green	Asian range	Broke both sides	44.935%	44.977%	2,379	-0.04 pts
Green	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.420%	0.420%	2,379	+0.00 pts
Red	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	34.362%	27.881%	1,944	+6.48 pts
Red	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	22.531%	28.961%	1,944	-6.43 pts
Red	Asian range	Broke both sides	42.438%	42.490%	1,944	-0.05 pts
Red	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.669%	0.669%	1,944	+0.00 pts

Size bucket4 groupsar_size bin 1 (2.03–12.87] – ar_size bin 4 (81.63–1104.61]

Group	Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
ar_size bin 1 (2.03–12.87]	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	24.769%	21.904%	1,082	+2.87 pts
ar_size bin 1 (2.03–12.87]	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	17.283%	19.871%	1,082	-2.59 pts
ar_size bin 1 (2.03–12.87]	Asian range	Broke both sides	57.856%	58.133%	1,082	-0.28 pts
ar_size bin 1 (2.03–12.87]	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.092%	0.092%	1,082	+0.00 pts
ar_size bin 2 (12.87–31.40]	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	34.074%	30.370%	1,080	+3.70 pts
ar_size bin 2 (12.87–31.40]	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	25.926%	29.537%	1,080	-3.61 pts
ar_size bin 2 (12.87–31.40]	Asian range	Broke both sides	40.000%	40.093%	1,080	-0.09 pts
ar_size bin 2 (12.87–31.40]	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.000%	0.000%	1,080	+0.00 pts
ar_size bin 3 (31.40–81.63]	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	32.285%	27.660%	1,081	+4.63 pts
ar_size bin 3 (31.40–81.63]	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	23.959%	28.585%	1,081	-4.63 pts
ar_size bin 3 (31.40–81.63]	Asian range	Broke both sides	42.923%	42.923%	1,081	+0.00 pts
ar_size bin 3 (31.40–81.63]	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.833%	0.833%	1,081	+0.00 pts
ar_size bin 4 (81.63–1104.61]	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	35.523%	32.100%	1,081	+3.42 pts
ar_size bin 4 (81.63–1104.61]	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	28.770%	32.100%	1,081	-3.33 pts
ar_size bin 4 (81.63–1104.61]	Asian range	Broke both sides	34.505%	34.598%	1,081	-0.09 pts
ar_size bin 4 (81.63–1104.61]	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	1.203%	1.203%	1,081	+0.00 pts

Extension level5 groups0–0.5x – >=2x

Group	Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
0–0.5x	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	30.352%	26.016%	369	+4.34 pts
0–0.5x	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	24.661%	28.726%	369	-4.07 pts
0–0.5x	Asian range	Broke both sides	38.753%	39.024%	369	-0.27 pts
0–0.5x	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	6.233%	6.233%	369	+0.00 pts
0.5–1x	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	30.914%	23.790%	744	+7.12 pts
0.5–1x	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	18.414%	25.403%	744	-6.99 pts
0.5–1x	Asian range	Broke both sides	50.672%	50.806%	744	-0.13 pts
0.5–1x	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.000%	0.000%	744	+0.00 pts
1–1.5x	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	31.558%	21.704%	751	+9.85 pts
1–1.5x	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	16.245%	26.099%	751	-9.85 pts
1–1.5x	Asian range	Broke both sides	52.197%	52.197%	751	+0.00 pts
1–1.5x	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.000%	0.000%	751	+0.00 pts
1.5–2x	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	31.898%	25.678%	627	+6.22 pts
1.5–2x	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	19.936%	25.997%	627	-6.06 pts
1.5–2x	Asian range	Broke both sides	48.166%	48.325%	627	-0.16 pts
1.5–2x	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.000%	0.000%	627	+0.00 pts
>=2x	Asian range	Broke above Asian high only	32.188%	30.987%	1,833	+1.20 pts
>=2x	Asian range	Broke below Asian low only	30.660%	31.806%	1,833	-1.15 pts
>=2x	Asian range	Broke both sides	37.152%	37.207%	1,833	-0.05 pts
>=2x	Asian range	Stayed within the Asian range	0.000%	0.000%	1,833	+0.00 pts