How often is the RTH daily candle a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern (its body fully engulfs the prior day's body, opposite color), and given such a pattern, how far does price continue from the engulfing close until it reclaims the engulfing open?
Bullish engulfing vs Bearish engulfing
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engulfing candle | Bullish engulfing | 3.279% | 0.000% | 4,331 | +3.28 pts |
| Engulfing candle | Bearish engulfing | 4.318% | 0.023% | 4,331 | +4.29 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Engulfing candle | Bullish engulfing | 3.186% | 0.000% | 816 | +3.19 pts |
| Monday | Engulfing candle | Bearish engulfing | 3.431% | 0.245% | 816 | +3.19 pts |
| Tuesday | Engulfing candle | Bullish engulfing | 3.125% | 0.000% | 896 | +3.13 pts |
| Tuesday | Engulfing candle | Bearish engulfing | 4.129% | 0.112% | 896 | +4.02 pts |
| Wednesday | Engulfing candle | Bullish engulfing | 3.258% | 0.000% | 890 | +3.26 pts |
| Wednesday | Engulfing candle | Bearish engulfing | 4.719% | 0.000% | 890 | +4.72 pts |
| Thursday | Engulfing candle | Bullish engulfing | 3.776% | 0.000% | 874 | +3.78 pts |
| Thursday | Engulfing candle | Bearish engulfing | 4.462% | 0.000% | 874 | +4.46 pts |
| Friday | Engulfing candle | Bullish engulfing | 3.041% | 0.000% | 855 | +3.04 pts |
| Friday | Engulfing candle | Bearish engulfing | 4.795% | 0.000% | 855 | +4.80 pts |