Instrument
Stat
ICT Opening Retracement
When a session opens above or below the ICT reference candle level (default the midnight open), how often does intraday price retrace back to that level?
Timeframe
When a session opens above or below the ICT reference candle level (default the midnight open), how often does intraday price retrace back to that level?
Retraced vs Not retraced
Retraced vs Not retraced
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opened above | Retraced | 67.416% | 69.330% | 2,090 | -1.91 pts |
| Opened above | Not retraced | 32.584% | 30.670% | 2,090 | +1.91 pts |
| Opened below | Retraced | 71.911% | 69.622% | 1,748 | +2.29 pts |
| Opened below | Not retraced | 28.089% | 30.378% | 1,748 | -2.29 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Opened above | Retraced | 60.891% | 66.584% | 404 | -5.69 pts |
| Monday | Opened above | Not retraced | 39.109% | 33.416% | 404 | +5.69 pts |
| Monday | Opened below | Retraced | 71.429% | 64.286% | 322 | +7.14 pts |
| Monday | Opened below | Not retraced | 28.571% | 35.714% | 322 | -7.14 pts |
| Tuesday | Opened above | Retraced | 68.137% | 66.912% | 408 | +1.23 pts |
| Tuesday | Opened above | Not retraced | 31.863% | 33.088% | 408 | -1.23 pts |
| Tuesday | Opened below | Retraced | 72.362% | 73.618% | 398 | -1.26 pts |
| Tuesday | Opened below | Not retraced | 27.638% | 26.382% | 398 | +1.26 pts |
| Wednesday | Opened above | Retraced | 69.676% | 72.685% | 432 | -3.01 pts |
| Wednesday | Opened above | Not retraced | 30.324% | 27.315% | 432 | +3.01 pts |
| Wednesday | Opened below | Retraced | 74.566% | 70.809% | 346 | +3.76 pts |
| Wednesday | Opened below | Not retraced | 25.434% | 29.191% | 346 | -3.76 pts |
| Thursday | Opened above | Retraced | 68.287% | 68.056% | 432 | +0.23 pts |
| Thursday | Opened above | Not retraced | 31.713% | 31.944% | 432 | -0.23 pts |
| Thursday | Opened below | Retraced | 70.170% | 70.455% | 352 | -0.28 pts |
| Thursday | Opened below | Not retraced | 29.830% | 29.545% | 352 | +0.28 pts |
| Friday | Opened above | Retraced | 69.807% | 69.324% | 414 | +0.48 pts |
| Friday | Opened above | Not retraced | 30.193% | 30.676% | 414 | -0.48 pts |
| Friday | Opened below | Retraced | 70.909% | 71.515% | 330 | -0.61 pts |
| Friday | Opened below | Not retraced | 29.091% | 28.485% | 330 | +0.61 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Opened above | Retraced | 47.574% | 65.945% | 1,154 | -18.37 pts |
| Green | Opened above | Not retraced | 52.426% | 34.055% | 1,154 | +18.37 pts |
| Green | Opened below | Retraced | 89.192% | 66.946% | 953 | +22.25 pts |
| Green | Opened below | Not retraced | 10.808% | 33.054% | 953 | -22.25 pts |
| Red | Opened above | Retraced | 91.880% | 71.581% | 936 | +20.30 pts |
| Red | Opened above | Not retraced | 8.120% | 28.419% | 936 | -20.30 pts |
| Red | Opened below | Retraced | 51.195% | 75.094% | 795 | -23.90 pts |
| Red | Opened below | Not retraced | 48.805% | 24.906% | 795 | +23.90 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Opened above | Retraced | 69.123% | 72.281% | 1,140 | -3.16 pts |
| Green | Opened above | Not retraced | 30.877% | 27.719% | 1,140 | +3.16 pts |
| Green | Opened below | Retraced | 70.954% | 67.220% | 964 | +3.73 pts |
| Green | Opened below | Not retraced | 29.046% | 32.780% | 964 | -3.73 pts |
| Red | Opened above | Retraced | 65.368% | 68.421% | 950 | -3.05 pts |
| Red | Opened above | Not retraced | 34.632% | 31.579% | 950 | +3.05 pts |
| Red | Opened below | Retraced | 73.087% | 69.388% | 784 | +3.70 pts |
| Red | Opened below | Not retraced | 26.913% | 30.612% | 784 | -3.70 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gap_size_pts bin 1 (0.27–7.45] | Opened above | Retraced | 89.655% | 92.698% | 493 | -3.04 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 1 (0.27–7.45] | Opened above | Not retraced | 10.345% | 7.302% | 493 | +3.04 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 1 (0.27–7.45] | Opened below | Retraced | 91.649% | 88.437% | 467 | +3.21 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 1 (0.27–7.45] | Opened below | Not retraced | 8.351% | 11.563% | 467 | -3.21 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 2 (7.45–19.50] | Opened above | Retraced | 72.294% | 73.761% | 545 | -1.47 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 2 (7.45–19.50] | Opened above | Not retraced | 27.706% | 26.239% | 545 | +1.47 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 2 (7.45–19.50] | Opened below | Retraced | 76.570% | 74.638% | 414 | +1.93 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 2 (7.45–19.50] | Opened below | Not retraced | 23.430% | 25.362% | 414 | -1.93 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 3 (19.50–54.38] | Opened above | Retraced | 59.404% | 60.894% | 537 | -1.49 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 3 (19.50–54.38] | Opened above | Not retraced | 40.596% | 39.106% | 537 | +1.49 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 3 (19.50–54.38] | Opened below | Retraced | 66.351% | 64.455% | 422 | +1.90 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 3 (19.50–54.38] | Opened below | Not retraced | 33.649% | 35.545% | 422 | -1.90 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 4 (54.38–854.22] | Opened above | Retraced | 49.320% | 50.291% | 515 | -0.97 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 4 (54.38–854.22] | Opened above | Not retraced | 50.680% | 49.709% | 515 | +0.97 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 4 (54.38–854.22] | Opened below | Retraced | 52.135% | 51.011% | 445 | +1.12 pts |
| gap_size_pts bin 4 (54.38–854.22] | Opened below | Not retraced | 47.865% | 48.989% | 445 | -1.12 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gap_size_pct bin 1 (0.00–0.13] | Opened above | Retraced | 91.036% | 92.829% | 502 | -1.79 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 1 (0.00–0.13] | Opened above | Not retraced | 8.964% | 7.171% | 502 | +1.79 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 1 (0.00–0.13] | Opened below | Retraced | 93.668% | 91.703% | 458 | +1.97 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 1 (0.00–0.13] | Opened below | Not retraced | 6.332% | 8.297% | 458 | -1.97 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 2 (0.13–0.28] | Opened above | Retraced | 78.058% | 77.670% | 515 | +0.39 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 2 (0.13–0.28] | Opened above | Not retraced | 21.942% | 22.330% | 515 | -0.39 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 2 (0.13–0.28] | Opened below | Retraced | 77.703% | 78.153% | 444 | -0.45 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 2 (0.13–0.28] | Opened below | Not retraced | 22.297% | 21.847% | 444 | +0.45 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 3 (0.28–0.54] | Opened above | Retraced | 59.675% | 62.749% | 553 | -3.07 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 3 (0.28–0.54] | Opened above | Not retraced | 40.325% | 37.251% | 553 | +3.07 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 3 (0.28–0.54] | Opened below | Retraced | 66.010% | 61.823% | 406 | +4.19 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 3 (0.28–0.54] | Opened below | Not retraced | 33.990% | 38.177% | 406 | -4.19 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 4 (0.54–10.58] | Opened above | Retraced | 42.308% | 45.385% | 520 | -3.08 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 4 (0.54–10.58] | Opened above | Not retraced | 57.692% | 54.615% | 520 | +3.08 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 4 (0.54–10.58] | Opened below | Retraced | 48.864% | 45.227% | 440 | +3.64 pts |
| gap_size_pct bin 4 (0.54–10.58] | Opened below | Not retraced | 51.136% | 54.773% | 440 | -3.64 pts |