Does the order in which the initial balance edges form predict the first breakout? Cross-tabulates which edge (high or low) formed first during the initial balance against which edge broke first afterward (high, low, or neither).
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 31.910% | 53.778% | 2,131 | -21.87 pts |
| IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 67.433% | 45.659% | 2,131 | +21.77 pts |
| IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.657% | 0.563% | 2,131 | +0.09 pts |
| IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 74.227% | 53.045% | 2,200 | +21.18 pts |
| IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 25.409% | 46.500% | 2,200 | -21.09 pts |
| IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.364% | 0.455% | 2,200 | -0.09 pts |
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 30.084% | 57.939% | 359 | -27.86 pts |
| Monday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 68.245% | 40.947% | 359 | +27.30 pts |
| Monday | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 1.671% | 1.114% | 359 | +0.56 pts |
| Monday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 78.337% | 56.455% | 457 | +21.88 pts |
| Monday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 21.444% | 42.888% | 457 | -21.44 pts |
| Monday | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.219% | 0.656% | 457 | -0.44 pts |
| Tuesday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 34.831% | 56.180% | 445 | -21.35 pts |
| Tuesday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 64.719% | 43.371% | 445 | +21.35 pts |
| Tuesday | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.449% | 0.449% | 445 | +0.00 pts |
| Tuesday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 74.723% | 53.659% | 451 | +21.06 pts |
| Tuesday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 25.055% | 46.120% | 451 | -21.06 pts |
| Tuesday | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.222% | 0.222% | 451 | +0.00 pts |
| Wednesday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 30.365% | 54.338% | 438 | -23.97 pts |
| Wednesday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 69.635% | 45.434% | 438 | +24.20 pts |
| Wednesday | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.000% | 0.228% | 438 | -0.23 pts |
| Wednesday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 73.451% | 50.221% | 452 | +23.23 pts |
| Wednesday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 26.106% | 49.558% | 452 | -23.45 pts |
| Wednesday | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.442% | 0.221% | 452 | +0.22 pts |
| Thursday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 30.702% | 50.439% | 456 | -19.74 pts |
| Thursday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 68.640% | 48.904% | 456 | +19.74 pts |
| Thursday | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.658% | 0.658% | 456 | +0.00 pts |
| Thursday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 74.224% | 52.745% | 419 | +21.48 pts |
| Thursday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 25.298% | 46.778% | 419 | -21.48 pts |
| Thursday | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.477% | 0.477% | 419 | +0.00 pts |
| Friday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 33.256% | 51.501% | 433 | -18.24 pts |
| Friday | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 66.051% | 48.499% | 433 | +17.55 pts |
| Friday | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.693% | 0.000% | 433 | +0.69 pts |
| Friday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 70.071% | 51.306% | 421 | +18.76 pts |
| Friday | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 29.454% | 47.506% | 421 | -18.05 pts |
| Friday | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.475% | 1.188% | 421 | -0.71 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 48.769% | 69.871% | 853 | -21.10 pts |
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 51.114% | 29.777% | 853 | +21.34 pts |
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.117% | 0.352% | 853 | -0.23 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 82.549% | 70.784% | 1,530 | +11.76 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 16.993% | 28.889% | 1,530 | -11.90 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.458% | 0.327% | 1,530 | +0.13 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 20.657% | 31.064% | 1,278 | -10.41 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 78.326% | 68.232% | 1,278 | +10.09 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 1.017% | 0.704% | 1,278 | +0.31 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 55.224% | 35.373% | 670 | +19.85 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 44.627% | 63.881% | 670 | -19.25 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.149% | 0.746% | 670 | -0.60 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 31.474% | 53.955% | 1,201 | -22.48 pts |
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 67.860% | 45.379% | 1,201 | +22.48 pts |
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.666% | 0.666% | 1,201 | +0.00 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 75.804% | 52.961% | 1,182 | +22.84 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 23.773% | 46.616% | 1,182 | -22.84 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.423% | 0.423% | 1,182 | +0.00 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 32.473% | 52.903% | 930 | -20.43 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 66.882% | 46.452% | 930 | +20.43 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.645% | 0.645% | 930 | +0.00 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 72.370% | 53.687% | 1,017 | +18.68 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 27.335% | 46.018% | 1,017 | -18.68 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.295% | 0.295% | 1,017 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 31.361% | 53.647% | 1,234 | -22.29 pts |
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 67.828% | 45.543% | 1,234 | +22.29 pts |
| Green | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.810% | 0.810% | 1,234 | +0.00 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 76.096% | 53.350% | 1,209 | +22.75 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 23.408% | 46.154% | 1,209 | -22.75 pts |
| Green | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.496% | 0.496% | 1,209 | +0.00 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 32.664% | 53.735% | 897 | -21.07 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 66.890% | 46.042% | 897 | +20.85 pts |
| Red | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.446% | 0.223% | 897 | +0.22 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 71.919% | 52.828% | 990 | +19.09 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 27.879% | 46.768% | 990 | -18.89 pts |
| Red | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.202% | 0.404% | 990 | -0.20 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ib_size bin 1 (4.36–17.10] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 38.868% | 51.887% | 530 | -13.02 pts |
| ib_size bin 1 (4.36–17.10] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 61.132% | 47.925% | 530 | +13.21 pts |
| ib_size bin 1 (4.36–17.10] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.000% | 0.189% | 530 | -0.19 pts |
| ib_size bin 1 (4.36–17.10] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 66.727% | 54.250% | 553 | +12.48 pts |
| ib_size bin 1 (4.36–17.10] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 32.911% | 45.570% | 553 | -12.66 pts |
| ib_size bin 1 (4.36–17.10] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.362% | 0.181% | 553 | +0.18 pts |
| ib_size bin 2 (17.10–33.57] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 29.094% | 54.528% | 519 | -25.43 pts |
| ib_size bin 2 (17.10–33.57] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 69.364% | 43.931% | 519 | +25.43 pts |
| ib_size bin 2 (17.10–33.57] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 1.541% | 1.541% | 519 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size bin 2 (17.10–33.57] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 77.482% | 54.078% | 564 | +23.40 pts |
| ib_size bin 2 (17.10–33.57] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 21.986% | 45.390% | 564 | -23.40 pts |
| ib_size bin 2 (17.10–33.57] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.532% | 0.532% | 564 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size bin 3 (33.57–89.96] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 30.975% | 52.008% | 523 | -21.03 pts |
| ib_size bin 3 (33.57–89.96] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 68.069% | 47.419% | 523 | +20.65 pts |
| ib_size bin 3 (33.57–89.96] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.956% | 0.574% | 523 | +0.38 pts |
| ib_size bin 3 (33.57–89.96] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 75.134% | 55.456% | 559 | +19.68 pts |
| ib_size bin 3 (33.57–89.96] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 24.687% | 44.007% | 559 | -19.32 pts |
| ib_size bin 3 (33.57–89.96] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.179% | 0.537% | 559 | -0.36 pts |
| ib_size bin 4 (89.96–647.05] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 28.801% | 52.057% | 559 | -23.26 pts |
| ib_size bin 4 (89.96–647.05] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 71.020% | 47.943% | 559 | +23.08 pts |
| ib_size bin 4 (89.96–647.05] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.179% | 0.000% | 559 | +0.18 pts |
| ib_size bin 4 (89.96–647.05] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 77.672% | 52.863% | 524 | +24.81 pts |
| ib_size bin 4 (89.96–647.05] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 21.947% | 46.565% | 524 | -24.62 pts |
| ib_size bin 4 (89.96–647.05] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.382% | 0.573% | 524 | -0.19 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ib_size_pct bin 1 (-0.00–0.20] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 51.852% | 62.963% | 27 | -11.11 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 1 (-0.00–0.20] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 48.148% | 37.037% | 27 | +11.11 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 1 (-0.00–0.20] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.000% | 0.000% | 27 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 1 (-0.00–0.20] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 52.500% | 45.000% | 40 | +7.50 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 1 (-0.00–0.20] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 47.500% | 55.000% | 40 | -7.50 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 1 (-0.00–0.20] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.000% | 0.000% | 40 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 2 (0.20–0.40] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 39.847% | 56.897% | 522 | -17.05 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 2 (0.20–0.40] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 59.770% | 42.720% | 522 | +17.05 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 2 (0.20–0.40] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.383% | 0.383% | 522 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 2 (0.20–0.40] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 68.394% | 53.022% | 579 | +15.37 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 2 (0.20–0.40] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 31.606% | 46.978% | 579 | -15.37 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 2 (0.20–0.40] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.000% | 0.000% | 579 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 3 (0.40–0.60] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 33.333% | 54.848% | 660 | -21.52 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 3 (0.40–0.60] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 66.061% | 44.697% | 660 | +21.36 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 3 (0.40–0.60] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.606% | 0.455% | 660 | +0.15 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 3 (0.40–0.60] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 77.697% | 56.997% | 686 | +20.70 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 3 (0.40–0.60] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 22.157% | 42.711% | 686 | -20.55 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 3 (0.40–0.60] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.146% | 0.292% | 686 | -0.15 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 4 (0.60–0.90] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 27.617% | 50.361% | 554 | -22.74 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 4 (0.60–0.90] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 71.480% | 49.097% | 554 | +22.38 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 4 (0.60–0.90] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.903% | 0.542% | 554 | +0.36 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 4 (0.60–0.90] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 75.536% | 53.036% | 560 | +22.50 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 4 (0.60–0.90] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 23.750% | 45.893% | 560 | -22.14 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 4 (0.60–0.90] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.714% | 1.071% | 560 | -0.36 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 5 (0.90–inf] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance high first | 23.098% | 49.457% | 368 | -26.36 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 5 (0.90–inf] | IB high formed first | Broke the balance low first | 76.087% | 49.728% | 368 | +26.36 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 5 (0.90–inf] | IB high formed first | Broke neither side | 0.815% | 0.815% | 368 | +0.00 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 5 (0.90–inf] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance high first | 77.612% | 48.657% | 335 | +28.96 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 5 (0.90–inf] | IB low formed first | Broke the balance low first | 21.493% | 50.448% | 335 | -28.96 pts |
| ib_size_pct bin 5 (0.90–inf] | IB low formed first | Broke neither side | 0.896% | 0.896% | 335 | +0.00 pts |