Instrument
Stat
Opening Candle Continuation
After the first N-minute candle of the NY session, how often does the session close in the same direction?
Timeframe
After the first N-minute candle of the NY session, how often does the session close in the same direction?
Session closes green vs Session closes red
Session closes green vs Session closes red
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green opening candle | Session closes green | 67.972% | 49.466% | 2,248 | +18.51 pts |
| Green opening candle | Session closes red | 32.028% | 50.534% | 2,248 | -18.51 pts |
| Red opening candle | Session closes green | 41.075% | 49.328% | 2,084 | -8.25 pts |
| Red opening candle | Session closes red | 58.925% | 50.672% | 2,084 | +8.25 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 70.339% | 51.271% | 472 | +19.07 pts |
| Monday | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 29.661% | 48.729% | 472 | -19.07 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 45.349% | 50.581% | 344 | -5.23 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 54.651% | 49.419% | 344 | +5.23 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 68.080% | 49.777% | 448 | +18.30 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 31.920% | 50.223% | 448 | -18.30 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 42.188% | 52.679% | 448 | -10.49 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 57.813% | 47.321% | 448 | +10.49 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 65.577% | 52.505% | 459 | +13.07 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 34.423% | 47.495% | 459 | -13.07 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 39.675% | 49.420% | 431 | -9.74 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 60.325% | 50.580% | 431 | +9.74 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 67.338% | 53.244% | 447 | +14.09 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 32.662% | 46.756% | 447 | -14.09 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 38.785% | 48.598% | 428 | -9.81 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 61.215% | 51.402% | 428 | +9.81 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 68.483% | 51.185% | 422 | +17.30 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 31.517% | 48.815% | 422 | -17.30 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 40.185% | 50.577% | 433 | -10.39 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 59.815% | 49.423% | 433 | +10.39 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 100.000% | 49.650% | 1,144 | +50.35 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 0.000% | 50.350% | 1,144 | -50.35 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 100.000% | 51.595% | 721 | +48.40 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 0.000% | 48.405% | 721 | -48.40 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 78.367% | 52.041% | 490 | +26.33 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 21.633% | 47.959% | 490 | -26.33 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 26.786% | 49.405% | 504 | -22.62 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 73.214% | 50.595% | 504 | +22.62 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 0.000% | 49.674% | 614 | -49.67 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 100.000% | 50.326% | 614 | +49.67 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 0.000% | 52.503% | 859 | -52.50 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 100.000% | 47.497% | 859 | +52.50 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| opening_body bin 1 (-0.00–4.70] | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 58.470% | 51.002% | 549 | +7.47 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (-0.00–4.70] | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 41.530% | 48.998% | 549 | -7.47 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (-0.00–4.70] | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 52.142% | 51.210% | 537 | +0.93 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (-0.00–4.70] | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 47.858% | 48.790% | 537 | -0.93 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.70–11.34] | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 69.177% | 51.138% | 571 | +18.04 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.70–11.34] | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 30.823% | 48.862% | 571 | -18.04 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.70–11.34] | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 40.668% | 50.688% | 509 | -10.02 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.70–11.34] | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 59.332% | 49.312% | 509 | +10.02 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.34–28.75] | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 72.949% | 50.087% | 573 | +22.86 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.34–28.75] | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 27.051% | 49.913% | 573 | -22.86 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.34–28.75] | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 38.039% | 52.157% | 510 | -14.12 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.34–28.75] | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 61.961% | 47.843% | 510 | +14.12 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.75–225.65] | Green opening candle | Session closes green | 70.991% | 53.333% | 555 | +17.66 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.75–225.65] | Green opening candle | Session closes red | 29.009% | 46.667% | 555 | -17.66 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.75–225.65] | Red opening candle | Session closes green | 33.144% | 48.674% | 528 | -15.53 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.75–225.65] | Red opening candle | Session closes red | 66.856% | 51.326% | 528 | +15.53 pts |