Instrument
Stat
Opening Candle Extreme Reclaim
After the opening candle closes, does the session reclaim the candle's high, low, both (and in what order), or neither?
Timeframe
After the opening candle closes, does the session reclaim the candle's high, low, both (and in what order), or neither?
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 36.594% | 24.457% | 2,208 | +12.14 pts |
| Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 9.420% | 25.362% | 2,208 | -15.94 pts |
| Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 39.130% | 12.681% | 2,208 | +26.45 pts |
| Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 14.810% | 12.545% | 2,208 | +2.26 pts |
| Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.045% | 24.955% | 2,208 | -24.91 pts |
| Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 11.756% | 26.248% | 2,084 | -14.49 pts |
| Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 32.869% | 24.280% | 2,084 | +8.59 pts |
| Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 14.347% | 12.668% | 2,084 | +1.68 pts |
| Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 40.931% | 12.380% | 2,084 | +28.55 pts |
| Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.096% | 24.424% | 2,084 | -24.33 pts |
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 40.257% | 25.268% | 467 | +14.99 pts |
| Monday | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 9.422% | 27.837% | 467 | -18.42 pts |
| Monday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 39.615% | 12.420% | 467 | +27.19 pts |
| Monday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 10.707% | 11.563% | 467 | -0.86 pts |
| Monday | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 22.912% | 467 | -22.91 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 15.988% | 25.872% | 344 | -9.88 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 33.140% | 23.837% | 344 | +9.30 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 10.756% | 13.372% | 344 | -2.62 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 40.116% | 13.081% | 344 | +27.03 pts |
| Monday | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 23.837% | 344 | -23.84 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 38.149% | 23.476% | 443 | +14.67 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 8.352% | 24.379% | 443 | -16.03 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 40.406% | 14.898% | 443 | +25.51 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 13.093% | 13.093% | 443 | +0.00 pts |
| Tuesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 24.153% | 443 | -24.15 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 12.054% | 25.223% | 448 | -13.17 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 30.134% | 26.563% | 448 | +3.57 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 14.732% | 10.491% | 448 | +4.24 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 43.080% | 12.723% | 448 | +30.36 pts |
| Tuesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 25.000% | 448 | -25.00 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 31.403% | 24.944% | 449 | +6.46 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 9.577% | 26.726% | 449 | -17.15 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 42.094% | 13.140% | 449 | +28.95 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 16.927% | 11.804% | 449 | +5.12 pts |
| Wednesday | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 23.385% | 449 | -23.39 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 9.745% | 23.898% | 431 | -14.15 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 30.162% | 25.290% | 431 | +4.87 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 19.026% | 13.457% | 431 | +5.57 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 41.067% | 12.065% | 431 | +29.00 pts |
| Wednesday | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 25.290% | 431 | -25.29 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 36.659% | 27.842% | 431 | +8.82 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 8.585% | 25.058% | 431 | -16.47 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 37.123% | 11.601% | 431 | +25.52 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 17.401% | 12.761% | 431 | +4.64 pts |
| Thursday | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.232% | 22.738% | 431 | -22.51 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 8.411% | 21.262% | 428 | -12.85 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 36.215% | 26.402% | 428 | +9.81 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 13.084% | 13.551% | 428 | -0.47 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 42.056% | 13.084% | 428 | +28.97 pts |
| Thursday | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.234% | 25.701% | 428 | -25.47 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 36.364% | 24.402% | 418 | +11.96 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 11.244% | 27.990% | 418 | -16.75 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 36.124% | 10.048% | 418 | +26.08 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 16.268% | 14.593% | 418 | +1.67 pts |
| Friday | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 22.967% | 418 | -22.97 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 13.395% | 23.326% | 433 | -9.93 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 34.873% | 22.171% | 433 | +12.70 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 13.395% | 14.088% | 433 | -0.69 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 38.106% | 13.626% | 433 | +24.48 pts |
| Friday | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.231% | 26.790% | 433 | -26.56 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 61.239% | 24.602% | 1,130 | +36.64 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 0.000% | 25.487% | 1,130 | -25.49 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 22.212% | 13.097% | 1,130 | +9.12 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 16.549% | 11.150% | 1,130 | +5.40 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 25.664% | 1,130 | -25.66 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 27.462% | 26.768% | 721 | +0.69 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 0.000% | 25.104% | 721 | -25.10 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 8.877% | 13.454% | 721 | -4.58 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 63.662% | 13.037% | 721 | +50.62 pts |
| Closes above opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 21.637% | 721 | -21.64 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 24.017% | 24.224% | 483 | -0.21 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 8.075% | 25.466% | 483 | -17.39 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 51.346% | 11.387% | 483 | +39.96 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 16.356% | 13.458% | 483 | +2.90 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.207% | 25.466% | 483 | -25.26 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 9.325% | 25.397% | 504 | -16.07 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 27.778% | 24.206% | 504 | +3.57 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 16.071% | 13.095% | 504 | +2.98 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 46.429% | 13.095% | 504 | +33.33 pts |
| Closes inside opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.397% | 24.206% | 504 | -23.81 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 0.000% | 23.025% | 595 | -23.03 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 28.403% | 27.059% | 595 | +1.34 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 61.345% | 12.269% | 595 | +49.08 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 10.252% | 10.924% | 595 | -0.67 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 26.723% | 595 | -26.72 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 0.000% | 26.892% | 859 | -26.89 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 63.446% | 24.680% | 859 | +38.77 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 17.928% | 13.155% | 859 | +4.77 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 18.626% | 13.271% | 859 | +5.36 pts |
| Closes below opening candle | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 22.002% | 859 | -22.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 21.143% | 27.238% | 525 | -6.10 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 13.143% | 26.095% | 525 | -12.95 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 41.143% | 13.333% | 525 | +27.81 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 24.571% | 12.190% | 525 | +12.38 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 21.143% | 525 | -21.14 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 16.606% | 23.905% | 548 | -7.30 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 18.613% | 27.372% | 548 | -8.76 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 25.182% | 10.036% | 548 | +15.15 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 39.599% | 13.869% | 548 | +25.73 pts |
| opening_body bin 1 (0.25–4.90] | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 24.818% | 548 | -24.82 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 37.123% | 25.933% | 563 | +11.19 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 9.769% | 27.709% | 563 | -17.94 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 37.655% | 9.769% | 563 | +27.89 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 15.453% | 14.920% | 563 | +0.53 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 21.670% | 563 | -21.67 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 11.373% | 25.098% | 510 | -13.73 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 30.392% | 25.686% | 510 | +4.71 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 14.510% | 13.725% | 510 | +0.78 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 43.725% | 10.980% | 510 | +32.75 pts |
| opening_body bin 2 (4.90–11.53] | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 24.510% | 510 | -24.51 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 39.791% | 24.084% | 573 | +15.71 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 7.155% | 26.527% | 573 | -19.37 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 40.663% | 12.391% | 573 | +28.27 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 12.216% | 14.136% | 573 | -1.92 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.175% | 22.862% | 573 | -22.69 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 10.000% | 27.200% | 500 | -17.20 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 37.200% | 27.000% | 500 | +10.20 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 10.600% | 10.800% | 500 | -0.20 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 41.800% | 11.800% | 500 | +30.00 pts |
| opening_body bin 3 (11.53–28.93] | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.400% | 23.200% | 500 | -22.80 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Green opening candle | Reclaims high only | 47.532% | 25.046% | 547 | +22.49 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Green opening candle | Reclaims low only | 7.861% | 27.239% | 547 | -19.38 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 37.112% | 12.431% | 547 | +24.68 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Green opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 7.495% | 12.431% | 547 | -4.94 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Green opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 22.852% | 547 | -22.85 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Red opening candle | Reclaims high only | 8.745% | 26.046% | 526 | -17.30 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Red opening candle | Reclaims low only | 46.008% | 26.236% | 526 | +19.77 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, high first | 6.464% | 10.837% | 526 | -4.37 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Red opening candle | Reclaims both, low first | 38.783% | 13.688% | 526 | +25.10 pts |
| opening_body bin 4 (28.93–225.65] | Red opening candle | Reclaims neither | 0.000% | 23.194% | 526 | -23.19 pts |