Instrument
Stat
Opening Range Breakout
After the opening range forms from the first N minutes of the session, how often does price break above the range high, below the range low, both sides, or neither during the rest of the session?
Timeframe
After the opening range forms from the first N minutes of the session, how often does price break above the range high, below the range low, both sides, or neither during the rest of the session?
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening range | Broke above range high only | 25.046% | 21.791% | 4,332 | +3.25 pts |
| Opening range | Broke below range low only | 21.260% | 24.354% | 4,332 | -3.09 pts |
| Opening range | Broke both sides | 53.601% | 53.763% | 4,332 | -0.16 pts |
| Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.092% | 0.092% | 4,332 | +0.00 pts |
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 30.637% | 27.206% | 816 | +3.43 pts |
| Monday | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 20.098% | 23.529% | 816 | -3.43 pts |
| Monday | Opening range | Broke both sides | 49.265% | 49.265% | 816 | +0.00 pts |
| Monday | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 816 | +0.00 pts |
| Tuesday | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 25.558% | 21.429% | 896 | +4.13 pts |
| Tuesday | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 19.643% | 23.549% | 896 | -3.91 pts |
| Tuesday | Opening range | Broke both sides | 54.688% | 54.911% | 896 | -0.22 pts |
| Tuesday | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.112% | 0.112% | 896 | +0.00 pts |
| Wednesday | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 21.124% | 18.652% | 890 | +2.47 pts |
| Wednesday | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 20.112% | 22.360% | 890 | -2.25 pts |
| Wednesday | Opening range | Broke both sides | 58.764% | 58.989% | 890 | -0.22 pts |
| Wednesday | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 890 | +0.00 pts |
| Thursday | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 22.971% | 22.629% | 875 | +0.34 pts |
| Thursday | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 22.629% | 22.857% | 875 | -0.23 pts |
| Thursday | Opening range | Broke both sides | 54.171% | 54.286% | 875 | -0.11 pts |
| Thursday | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.229% | 0.229% | 875 | +0.00 pts |
| Friday | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 25.380% | 25.380% | 855 | +0.00 pts |
| Friday | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 23.860% | 23.509% | 855 | +0.35 pts |
| Friday | Opening range | Broke both sides | 50.643% | 50.994% | 855 | -0.35 pts |
| Friday | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.117% | 0.117% | 855 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 43.666% | 22.315% | 2,384 | +21.35 pts |
| Green | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 1.594% | 22.651% | 2,384 | -21.06 pts |
| Green | Opening range | Broke both sides | 54.656% | 54.950% | 2,384 | -0.29 pts |
| Green | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.084% | 0.084% | 2,384 | +0.00 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 2.259% | 23.049% | 1,948 | -20.79 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 45.329% | 24.333% | 1,948 | +21.00 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Broke both sides | 52.310% | 52.515% | 1,948 | -0.21 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.103% | 0.103% | 1,948 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 25.262% | 24.465% | 2,383 | +0.80 pts |
| Green | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 22.535% | 23.080% | 2,383 | -0.55 pts |
| Green | Opening range | Broke both sides | 52.119% | 52.371% | 2,383 | -0.25 pts |
| Green | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.084% | 0.084% | 2,383 | +0.00 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 24.795% | 22.023% | 1,948 | +2.77 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 19.713% | 22.433% | 1,948 | -2.72 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Broke both sides | 55.390% | 55.441% | 1,948 | -0.05 pts |
| Red | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.103% | 0.103% | 1,948 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| orb_size bin 1 (-0.00–13.22] | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 21.607% | 20.683% | 1,083 | +0.92 pts |
| orb_size bin 1 (-0.00–13.22] | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 19.114% | 19.483% | 1,083 | -0.37 pts |
| orb_size bin 1 (-0.00–13.22] | Opening range | Broke both sides | 59.280% | 59.834% | 1,083 | -0.55 pts |
| orb_size bin 1 (-0.00–13.22] | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| orb_size bin 2 (13.22–26.34] | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 26.685% | 25.115% | 1,083 | +1.57 pts |
| orb_size bin 2 (13.22–26.34] | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 21.422% | 22.807% | 1,083 | -1.39 pts |
| orb_size bin 2 (13.22–26.34] | Opening range | Broke both sides | 51.524% | 51.708% | 1,083 | -0.18 pts |
| orb_size bin 2 (13.22–26.34] | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.369% | 0.369% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| orb_size bin 3 (26.34–68.75] | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 25.577% | 24.746% | 1,083 | +0.83 pts |
| orb_size bin 3 (26.34–68.75] | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 20.960% | 21.791% | 1,083 | -0.83 pts |
| orb_size bin 3 (26.34–68.75] | Opening range | Broke both sides | 53.463% | 53.463% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| orb_size bin 3 (26.34–68.75] | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| orb_size bin 4 (68.75–385.92] | Opening range | Broke above range high only | 26.316% | 24.469% | 1,083 | +1.85 pts |
| orb_size bin 4 (68.75–385.92] | Opening range | Broke below range low only | 23.546% | 25.392% | 1,083 | -1.85 pts |
| orb_size bin 4 (68.75–385.92] | Opening range | Broke both sides | 50.139% | 50.139% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| orb_size bin 4 (68.75–385.92] | Opening range | Stayed within the range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |