Instrument
Stat
Outside Days
How often does a session open outside the prior day's range (above its RTH high or below its RTH low), and given such an open, does price continue away from the range or reverse back into it during the session?
Timeframe
How often does a session open outside the prior day's range (above its RTH high or below its RTH low), and given such an open, does price continue away from the range or reverse back into it during the session?
Open above prior high vs Open below prior low
Continuation (held outside) vs Reversal (back into range)
Continuation (held outside) vs Reversal (back into range)
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outside open | Open above prior high | 23.436% | 49.734% | 4,331 | -26.30 pts |
| Outside open | Open below prior low | 13.577% | 49.642% | 4,331 | -36.07 pts |
| Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 34.581% | 99.489% | 1,015 | -64.91 pts |
| Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 65.419% | 0.511% | 1,015 | +64.91 pts |
| Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 30.442% | 99.535% | 588 | -69.09 pts |
| Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 69.558% | 0.465% | 588 | +69.09 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Outside open | Open above prior high | 23.775% | 50.490% | 816 | -26.72 pts |
| Monday | Outside open | Open below prior low | 15.686% | 48.652% | 816 | -32.97 pts |
| Monday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 44.845% | 99.029% | 194 | -54.18 pts |
| Monday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 55.155% | 0.971% | 194 | +54.18 pts |
| Monday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 31.250% | 99.496% | 128 | -68.25 pts |
| Monday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 68.750% | 0.504% | 128 | +68.25 pts |
| Tuesday | Outside open | Open above prior high | 24.442% | 49.442% | 896 | -25.00 pts |
| Tuesday | Outside open | Open below prior low | 12.835% | 49.888% | 896 | -37.05 pts |
| Tuesday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 32.420% | 99.774% | 219 | -67.35 pts |
| Tuesday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 67.580% | 0.226% | 219 | +67.35 pts |
| Tuesday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 36.522% | 99.776% | 115 | -63.25 pts |
| Tuesday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 63.478% | 0.224% | 115 | +63.25 pts |
| Wednesday | Outside open | Open above prior high | 22.921% | 49.888% | 890 | -26.97 pts |
| Wednesday | Outside open | Open below prior low | 11.236% | 49.663% | 890 | -38.43 pts |
| Wednesday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 33.333% | 100.000% | 204 | -66.67 pts |
| Wednesday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 66.667% | 0.000% | 204 | +66.67 pts |
| Wednesday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 25.000% | 99.774% | 100 | -74.77 pts |
| Wednesday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 75.000% | 0.226% | 100 | +74.77 pts |
| Thursday | Outside open | Open above prior high | 22.540% | 49.657% | 874 | -27.12 pts |
| Thursday | Outside open | Open below prior low | 14.989% | 49.886% | 874 | -34.90 pts |
| Thursday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 36.041% | 99.309% | 197 | -63.27 pts |
| Thursday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 63.959% | 0.691% | 197 | +63.27 pts |
| Thursday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 27.481% | 100.000% | 131 | -72.52 pts |
| Thursday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 72.519% | 0.000% | 131 | +72.52 pts |
| Friday | Outside open | Open above prior high | 23.509% | 49.357% | 855 | -25.85 pts |
| Friday | Outside open | Open below prior low | 13.333% | 49.942% | 855 | -36.61 pts |
| Friday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 26.866% | 99.763% | 201 | -72.90 pts |
| Friday | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 73.134% | 0.237% | 201 | +72.90 pts |
| Friday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 31.579% | 98.829% | 114 | -67.25 pts |
| Friday | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 68.421% | 1.171% | 114 | +67.25 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Outside open | Open above prior high | 34.536% | 50.063% | 2,383 | -15.53 pts |
| Green | Outside open | Open below prior low | 6.714% | 49.601% | 2,383 | -42.89 pts |
| Green | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 35.601% | 99.329% | 823 | -63.73 pts |
| Green | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 64.399% | 0.671% | 823 | +63.73 pts |
| Green | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 26.875% | 99.154% | 160 | -72.28 pts |
| Green | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 73.125% | 0.846% | 160 | +72.28 pts |
| Red | Outside open | Open above prior high | 9.856% | 50.770% | 1,948 | -40.91 pts |
| Red | Outside open | Open below prior low | 21.971% | 48.563% | 1,948 | -26.59 pts |
| Red | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Continuation (held outside) | 30.208% | 99.494% | 192 | -69.29 pts |
| Red | Bullish outside (open above prior high) | Reversal (back into range) | 69.792% | 0.506% | 192 | +69.29 pts |
| Red | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Continuation (held outside) | 31.776% | 99.260% | 428 | -67.48 pts |
| Red | Bearish outside (open below prior low) | Reversal (back into range) | 68.224% | 0.740% | 428 | +67.48 pts |