Instrument
Stat
Overnight Continuation
Given the overnight gap's direction (today's open vs the prior session's close), how often does the day close in the same direction (intraday)?
Timeframe
Given the overnight gap's direction (today's open vs the prior session's close), how often does the day close in the same direction (intraday)?
Green day (up) vs Red day (down)
Green day (up) vs Red day (down)
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green overnight gap (up) | Green day (up) | 54.564% | 48.357% | 2,465 | +6.21 pts |
| Green overnight gap (up) | Red day (down) | 45.436% | 51.643% | 2,465 | -6.21 pts |
| Red overnight gap (down) | Green day (up) | 55.681% | 50.804% | 1,866 | +4.88 pts |
| Red overnight gap (down) | Red day (down) | 44.319% | 49.196% | 1,866 | -4.88 pts |