Comparing each session's market-hours high and low to the prior overnight session's high and low, how often does price break above the overnight high only, below the overnight low only, both sides, or neither during the RTH session?
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 37.673% | 34.349% | 4,332 | +3.32 pts |
| Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 31.002% | 34.257% | 4,332 | -3.25 pts |
| Overnight range | Broke both sides | 28.186% | 28.278% | 4,332 | -0.09 pts |
| Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.139% | 3.116% | 4,332 | +0.02 pts |
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 43.015% | 36.275% | 816 | +6.74 pts |
| Monday | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 28.064% | 35.049% | 816 | -6.99 pts |
| Monday | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 25.490% | 25.490% | 816 | +0.00 pts |
| Monday | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.431% | 3.186% | 816 | +0.25 pts |
| Tuesday | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 37.277% | 32.589% | 896 | +4.69 pts |
| Tuesday | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 30.692% | 35.268% | 896 | -4.58 pts |
| Tuesday | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 29.688% | 29.799% | 896 | -0.11 pts |
| Tuesday | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 2.344% | 2.344% | 896 | +0.00 pts |
| Wednesday | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 36.629% | 32.697% | 890 | +3.93 pts |
| Wednesday | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 28.764% | 32.472% | 890 | -3.71 pts |
| Wednesday | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 32.247% | 32.472% | 890 | -0.22 pts |
| Wednesday | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 2.360% | 2.360% | 890 | +0.00 pts |
| Thursday | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 36.571% | 34.400% | 875 | +2.17 pts |
| Thursday | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 34.171% | 36.229% | 875 | -2.06 pts |
| Thursday | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 26.171% | 26.286% | 875 | -0.11 pts |
| Thursday | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.086% | 3.086% | 875 | +0.00 pts |
| Friday | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 35.205% | 35.439% | 855 | -0.23 pts |
| Friday | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 33.216% | 32.865% | 855 | +0.35 pts |
| Friday | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 27.018% | 27.135% | 855 | -0.12 pts |
| Friday | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 4.561% | 4.561% | 855 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 59.941% | 35.445% | 2,384 | +24.50 pts |
| Green | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 11.326% | 35.654% | 2,384 | -24.33 pts |
| Green | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 25.419% | 25.629% | 2,384 | -0.21 pts |
| Green | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.314% | 3.272% | 2,384 | +0.04 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 10.421% | 32.341% | 1,948 | -21.92 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 55.082% | 33.162% | 1,948 | +21.92 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 31.571% | 31.571% | 1,948 | +0.00 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 2.926% | 2.926% | 1,948 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 35.879% | 35.585% | 2,383 | +0.29 pts |
| Green | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 32.480% | 32.774% | 2,383 | -0.29 pts |
| Green | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 28.452% | 28.493% | 2,383 | -0.04 pts |
| Green | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.189% | 3.147% | 2,383 | +0.04 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 39.887% | 35.010% | 1,948 | +4.88 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 29.209% | 33.984% | 1,948 | -4.77 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 27.823% | 27.977% | 1,948 | -0.15 pts |
| Red | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.080% | 3.029% | 1,948 | +0.05 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| on_size bin 1 (5.20–23.75] | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 33.149% | 29.271% | 1,083 | +3.88 pts |
| on_size bin 1 (5.20–23.75] | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 26.131% | 29.732% | 1,083 | -3.60 pts |
| on_size bin 1 (5.20–23.75] | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 39.982% | 40.351% | 1,083 | -0.37 pts |
| on_size bin 1 (5.20–23.75] | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 0.739% | 0.646% | 1,083 | +0.09 pts |
| on_size bin 2 (23.75–51.21] | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 38.504% | 33.795% | 1,083 | +4.71 pts |
| on_size bin 2 (23.75–51.21] | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 33.610% | 38.227% | 1,083 | -4.62 pts |
| on_size bin 2 (23.75–51.21] | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 25.023% | 25.115% | 1,083 | -0.09 pts |
| on_size bin 2 (23.75–51.21] | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 2.862% | 2.862% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| on_size bin 3 (51.21–139.16] | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 39.058% | 30.009% | 1,083 | +9.05 pts |
| on_size bin 3 (51.21–139.16] | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 30.286% | 39.335% | 1,083 | -9.05 pts |
| on_size bin 3 (51.21–139.16] | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 27.424% | 27.424% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| on_size bin 3 (51.21–139.16] | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 3.232% | 3.232% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| on_size bin 4 (139.16–1104.61] | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 39.982% | 37.396% | 1,083 | +2.59 pts |
| on_size bin 4 (139.16–1104.61] | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 33.980% | 36.565% | 1,083 | -2.59 pts |
| on_size bin 4 (139.16–1104.61] | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 20.314% | 20.314% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| on_size bin 4 (139.16–1104.61] | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 5.725% | 5.725% | 1,083 | +0.00 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–0.5x | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 36.634% | 32.427% | 1,545 | +4.21 pts |
| 0–0.5x | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 28.479% | 32.621% | 1,545 | -4.14 pts |
| 0–0.5x | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 26.084% | 26.149% | 1,545 | -0.06 pts |
| 0–0.5x | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 8.803% | 8.803% | 1,545 | +0.00 pts |
| 0.5–1x | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 41.282% | 34.011% | 1,279 | +7.27 pts |
| 0.5–1x | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 27.678% | 34.949% | 1,279 | -7.27 pts |
| 0.5–1x | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 31.040% | 31.040% | 1,279 | +0.00 pts |
| 0.5–1x | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 1,279 | +0.00 pts |
| 1–1.5x | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 40.859% | 33.380% | 722 | +7.48 pts |
| 1–1.5x | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 28.670% | 36.011% | 722 | -7.34 pts |
| 1–1.5x | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 30.471% | 30.609% | 722 | -0.14 pts |
| 1–1.5x | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 722 | +0.00 pts |
| 1.5–2x | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 34.783% | 35.038% | 391 | -0.26 pts |
| 1.5–2x | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 39.898% | 39.386% | 391 | +0.51 pts |
| 1.5–2x | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 25.320% | 25.575% | 391 | -0.26 pts |
| 1.5–2x | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 391 | +0.00 pts |
| >=2x | Overnight range | Broke above overnight high only | 27.089% | 35.443% | 395 | -8.35 pts |
| >=2x | Overnight range | Broke below overnight low only | 47.089% | 38.734% | 395 | +8.35 pts |
| >=2x | Overnight range | Broke both sides | 25.823% | 25.823% | 395 | +0.00 pts |
| >=2x | Overnight range | Stayed within the overnight range | 0.000% | 0.000% | 395 | +0.00 pts |