Instrument
Stat
Previous Day's Range
How often does intraday price break the prior day's range (RTH high or low), and given a break, does the session follow through by closing in the break's direction?
Timeframe
How often does intraday price break the prior day's range (RTH high or low), and given a break, does the session follow through by closing in the break's direction?
Break prior high vs Break prior low
Green day (up) vs Red day (down)
Green day (up) vs Red day (down)
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior day's range | Break prior high | 56.061% | 49.965% | 4,331 | +6.10 pts |
| Prior day's range | Break prior low | 43.408% | 50.012% | 4,331 | -6.60 pts |
| Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 67.298% | 50.000% | 2,428 | +17.30 pts |
| Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 32.702% | 50.000% | 2,428 | -17.30 pts |
| Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 35.904% | 48.430% | 1,880 | -12.53 pts |
| Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 64.096% | 51.570% | 1,880 | +12.53 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 57.353% | 50.490% | 816 | +6.86 pts |
| Monday | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 41.176% | 49.510% | 816 | -8.33 pts |
| Monday | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 71.368% | 48.058% | 468 | +23.31 pts |
| Monday | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 28.632% | 51.942% | 468 | -23.31 pts |
| Monday | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 40.774% | 50.000% | 336 | -9.23 pts |
| Monday | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 59.226% | 50.000% | 336 | +9.23 pts |
| Tuesday | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 57.478% | 49.777% | 896 | +7.70 pts |
| Tuesday | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 42.188% | 50.112% | 896 | -7.92 pts |
| Tuesday | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 67.379% | 46.637% | 515 | +20.74 pts |
| Tuesday | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 32.621% | 53.363% | 515 | -20.74 pts |
| Tuesday | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 37.037% | 51.002% | 378 | -13.97 pts |
| Tuesday | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 62.963% | 48.998% | 378 | +13.97 pts |
| Wednesday | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 58.315% | 50.225% | 890 | +8.09 pts |
| Wednesday | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 42.921% | 49.663% | 890 | -6.74 pts |
| Wednesday | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 65.703% | 51.007% | 519 | +14.70 pts |
| Wednesday | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 34.297% | 48.993% | 519 | -14.70 pts |
| Wednesday | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 34.031% | 46.154% | 382 | -12.12 pts |
| Wednesday | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 65.969% | 53.846% | 382 | +12.12 pts |
| Thursday | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 54.577% | 49.886% | 874 | +4.69 pts |
| Thursday | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 46.911% | 50.000% | 874 | -3.09 pts |
| Thursday | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 66.038% | 47.248% | 477 | +18.79 pts |
| Thursday | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 33.962% | 52.752% | 477 | -18.79 pts |
| Thursday | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 35.122% | 49.428% | 410 | -14.31 pts |
| Thursday | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 64.878% | 50.572% | 410 | +14.31 pts |
| Friday | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 52.515% | 49.708% | 855 | +2.81 pts |
| Friday | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 43.743% | 50.292% | 855 | -6.55 pts |
| Friday | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 66.147% | 48.471% | 449 | +17.68 pts |
| Friday | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 33.853% | 51.529% | 449 | -17.68 pts |
| Friday | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 33.155% | 48.605% | 374 | -15.45 pts |
| Friday | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 66.845% | 51.395% | 374 | +15.45 pts |
| Group | Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 71.381% | 50.357% | 2,383 | +21.02 pts |
| Green | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 31.137% | 49.769% | 2,383 | -18.63 pts |
| Green | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 63.492% | 47.833% | 1,701 | +15.66 pts |
| Green | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 36.508% | 52.167% | 1,701 | -15.66 pts |
| Green | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 29.111% | 51.265% | 742 | -22.15 pts |
| Green | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 70.889% | 48.735% | 742 | +22.15 pts |
| Red | Prior day's range | Break prior high | 37.320% | 51.027% | 1,948 | -13.71 pts |
| Red | Prior day's range | Break prior low | 58.419% | 48.871% | 1,948 | +9.55 pts |
| Red | Broke prior high | Green day (up) | 76.204% | 48.189% | 727 | +28.01 pts |
| Red | Broke prior high | Red day (down) | 23.796% | 51.811% | 727 | -28.01 pts |
| Red | Broke prior low | Green day (up) | 40.334% | 49.265% | 1,138 | -8.93 pts |
| Red | Broke prior low | Red day (down) | 59.666% | 50.735% | 1,138 | +8.93 pts |