Instrument
Stat
Previous Week's Range
How does a trading week resolve against the prior week's range — does it break the high only, the low only, both, or stay inside? And when both are taken, which level is hit first?
Timeframe
How does a trading week resolve against the prior week's range — does it break the high only, the low only, both, or stay inside? And when both are taken, which level is hit first?
| Condition | Outcome | Probability | Baseline | N | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior week's range | Break prior high only | 51.488% | 48.732% | 907 | +2.76 pts |
| Prior week's range | Break prior low only | 27.674% | 50.276% | 907 | -22.60 pts |
| Prior week's range | Break both levels | 13.120% | 0.441% | 907 | +12.68 pts |
| Prior week's range | Stay inside | 7.718% | 0.551% | 907 | +7.17 pts |
| Broke both levels | High taken first | 54.622% | 46.218% | 119 | +8.40 pts |
| Broke both levels | Low taken first | 45.378% | 53.782% | 119 | -8.40 pts |
Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.