Seasonality

What is the average percent return and green/red period split for each month of the year and each week of the year?

Timeframe

Summarised magnitudescontinuation · NQ Monthly

All periods · Average return

1.58%

N = 209vs -0.10% baseline

All periods · Average green move

4.53%

N = 136vs 4.19% baseline

All periods · Average red move

-3.91%

N = 73vs -4.44% baseline

Pattern frequency

All periods

Green period (up) vs Red period (down)

+14.83 pts

65.1%Green period (up)

65.1%

34.9%

Green period (up)Red period (down)

Probabilities are observed frequencies over the selected period. The baseline is the same outcome's unconditional rate; edge is probability − baseline, in percentage points.

Advanced

Data range

2009-01-02 → 2026-05-01

Total sessions

209

Period

All history

Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
All periods	Green period (up)	65.072%	50.239%	209	+14.83 pts
All periods	Red period (down)	34.928%	49.761%	209	-14.83 pts

Sliced by dimensionexpand a dimension to see grouped probabilities

Month of year12 groupsJanuary – December

Group	Condition	Outcome	Probability	Baseline	N	Edge
January	All periods	Green period (up)	66.667%	61.111%	18	+5.56 pts
January	All periods	Red period (down)	33.333%	38.889%	18	-5.56 pts
February	All periods	Green period (up)	55.556%	61.111%	18	-5.56 pts
February	All periods	Red period (down)	44.444%	38.889%	18	+5.56 pts
March	All periods	Green period (up)	61.111%	61.111%	18	+0.00 pts
March	All periods	Red period (down)	38.889%	38.889%	18	+0.00 pts
April	All periods	Green period (up)	72.222%	61.111%	18	+11.11 pts
April	All periods	Red period (down)	27.778%	38.889%	18	-11.11 pts
May	All periods	Green period (up)	66.667%	61.111%	18	+5.56 pts
May	All periods	Red period (down)	33.333%	38.889%	18	-5.56 pts
June	All periods	Green period (up)	58.824%	64.706%	17	-5.88 pts
June	All periods	Red period (down)	41.176%	35.294%	17	+5.88 pts
July	All periods	Green period (up)	94.118%	64.706%	17	+29.41 pts
July	All periods	Red period (down)	5.882%	35.294%	17	-29.41 pts
August	All periods	Green period (up)	58.824%	64.706%	17	-5.88 pts
August	All periods	Red period (down)	41.176%	35.294%	17	+5.88 pts
September	All periods	Green period (up)	47.059%	64.706%	17	-17.65 pts
September	All periods	Red period (down)	52.941%	35.294%	17	+17.65 pts
October	All periods	Green period (up)	58.824%	64.706%	17	-5.88 pts
October	All periods	Red period (down)	41.176%	35.294%	17	+5.88 pts
November	All periods	Green period (up)	82.353%	64.706%	17	+17.65 pts
November	All periods	Red period (down)	17.647%	35.294%	17	-17.65 pts
December	All periods	Green period (up)	58.824%	64.706%	17	-5.88 pts
December	All periods	Red period (down)	41.176%	35.294%	17	+5.88 pts